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Is the Housing Market Experiencing a Bottom? Our Predictions for 2010 and beyond!
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The information in this article is merely an opinion on the real estate market. It uses U.S. Census Bureau data on New Home Sales (not existing homes or non single family homes) to derive an opinion. No statement within this article should be viewed as a suggestion or statement to buy or sell real estate for investment purposes or any other purpose. The data was garnered from sources believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. The real estate recovery prediction is a forward looking document which is only an opinion.
Previously:
It hasn't happened in six years - and yet it may be happening again right now! (It DID happen - exactly as we predicted!)
With pinpoint accuracy we called the 2008 housing market in October of 2007.
With continued accuracy we called the 2009 housing market in November of 2008.
And we have now made predictions through May of 2010 which are currently available to our subscribers!
Want to see what we said several months ago? Keep reading!
Many times our opinions on market direction were first published here - and later those opinions proved true and the hard facts were printed in the newspapers for others to learn about much later!
We now provide an opportunity to obtain a full year of our reports for about ten bucks a month. An entire year of reporting is now available! Click below to order now!
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The following data and charts reflects new home sales only unless otherwise stated.
Data and associated graph from the New Houses Sold, by Sales Price report from the U.S. Census Bureau (broken out by quarters - totals have been rounded) (uses non-seasonally adjusted figures) (Some figures are preliminary and most figures are revised by Commerce in the months following the initial report) Non-seasonally adjusted data. [Thousands of houses. Components may not add to total because of rounding.]
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Our Analysis: 1/28/2010 Update: For updated reports and complete analysis you must subscribe now! Our first quarter report for 2009 was crystal ball accurate. Our second quarter report for 2009 was crystal ball accurate. Our third quarter report for 2009 was crystal ball accurate AND we predicted a phenomenon that had not occurred in six years - and it happened! Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data reflects new home sales data only from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Median sales price in October was $221,300. Check out what we have been telling our subscribers for the past few months! Our prior predictions continue to play out accurately. It happened again! In our several reports to subscribers, long before the just released 3Q numbers were available, we mentioned that a phenomenon that had not occurred in six years was getting ready to happen again. 2003 was the last time the 3Q numbers were higher than the 1Q numbers of the same year. And as you may recall the year 2003 and 2004 were much better for the housing market than 2008 and 2009. Sure enough, when the 3Q numbers were revealed we again saw just how accurate our predictions were with the 3Q2009 numbers being significantly higher than the 1Q2009 numbers! Now the preliminary 4th Quarter and year end results are in! What are we saying now about the 2010 housing market? Subscribe and find out! It was in 2008, long before the National Association of Realtors predicted a bottom in housing in the first half of 2009, that we told you about our expectations for a bottom in the first half of this year. So now of course you want to know where we are headed in 2010 - and who doesn't? "From a prior issue: it now looks like the 3Q numbers may indeed come in higher than the 1Q numbers. This is something that has not happened since 2003! We should note that Commerce frequently revises their numbers and as such at least one more month is needed just to see how significantly they may revise the just released figures. But it sure looks promising!" Our latest commentary for our subscribers reflects upon an "artificiality" within the marketplace and how that may affect 2010 numbers! The next report from Commerce is scheduled for Wednesday January 27th, 2010. You can be just like the news media and think that the just reported dismal numbers will continue, or you can get in the know! Know about it now, or read about it later - the choice is yours to make. "Where is the housing market headed in 2010?" While we will continue to post limited updates right here in our non-subscribers section, if you wish to see the latest information on the housing market when those reports are released then you should subscribe for the extremely low annual fee of $119.95 for an entire year! That's less than ten bucks a month! Subscribers also have access to our updated metro area report which includes information about the Spokane, WA housing market. You can see an old metro area report below. The information is from one of our prior reports. You must subscribe to get the latest in depth analysis! We utilized a proprietary Data Choices algorithm to analyze this data. We are ignoring existing home sales for this report. |
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As with all real estate market predictions they are subject to being wrong and are only opinions. Nevertheless, just as with our Strong Dollar Project, we will continue to monitor and update the situation. If we are right about the bottom we will certainly indicate that in future reports. And if we are wrong then the whole world will know! Analyzing real estate data is much like analyzing any form of demographic data - data which can be vital to your career! And at Data Choices we love to analyze data and give you choices!
As always we stand on integrity and hard work. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results.
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This article will continue to be updated as we analyze the pricing data and attempt to garner further information about a possible recovery in the housing market. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Spokane Washington Housing Report as compared to National Metro Prices - See it here!
